Performance of Stock Pick Lists for 2015
January 3rd, 2016
If you read any financial publications around this time of year, you will likely see links to articles with buzzfeedy titles of the format: [x] [positive adjective] stocks for 2016. If you had followed the advice of these articles for 2015 - how well would you have done?
For reference, the markets were generally flat this year; the S&P 500 declined 0.73% and had a total return of +1.38%. By contrast, the S&P 500 rose by roughly +13%, +32% and 16% in 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively. Would it have been better to assume more risk and pick individual stocks? Here is how a handful of professionals would have fared if they had used their own advice and bought their recommended stocks:
Kiplinger: 25 Best Stocks for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| CNRD | Conrad Industries | 35.00 | 22.20 | -36.57 |
| CRM | Salesforce.com | 59.90 | 78.40 | 30.88 |
| GOOGL | 532.60 | 778.01 | 46.08 | |
| CAB | Cabelas | 53.04 | 46.73 | -11.90 |
| RST | Rosetta Stone | 9.80 | 6.69 | -31.73 |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk | 42.55 | 58.08 | 36.50 |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 192.10 | 217.15 | 13.04 |
| FUJIY | FUJIFILM Holdings | 30.96 | 41.71 | 34.72 |
| RH | Restoration Hardware | 96.19 | 79.45 | -17.40 |
| TWTR | 36.23 | 23.14 | -36.13 | |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 45.25 | 44.91 | -0.75 |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences | 95.14 | 101.19 | 6.36 |
| AXP | American Express | 93.17 | 69.55 | -25.35 |
| M | Macy's | 66.33 | 34.98 | -47.26 |
| AAPL | Apple | 111.39 | 105.26 | -5.50 |
| PCP | Precision Castparts | 242.09 | 232.01 | -4.16 |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab | 30.41 | 32.93 | 8.29 |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | 96.57 | 106.73 | 10.52 |
| HHC | Howard Hughes Corp | 130.58 | 113.16 | -13.34 |
| C | Citigroup | 54.36 | 51.75 | -4.80 |
| * MWV | MeadWestvaco | 45.25 | 48.37 | 6.91 |
| SUNE | Sunedison | 20.02 | 5.12 | -74.54 |
| ZINC | Horsehead Corp | 15.91 | 2.05 | -87.12 |
| BA | Boeing | 131.07 | 144.59 | 10.32 |
| Mean | -8.03 | |||
| Median | -4.48 |
Barrons: Our 10 Favorite Stocks for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| GM | General Mototrs | 35.27 | 34.01 | -3.57 |
| BAC | Bank of America | 17.99 | 16.83 | -6.45 |
| BA | Boeing | 131.07 | 144.59 | 10.32 |
| AAL | American Airlines | 54.28 | 42.35 | -21.98 |
| GOOGL | 532.60 | 778.01 | 46.08 | |
| MU | Micron | 35.24 | 14.16 | -59.82 |
| M | Macy's | 66.33 | 34.98 | -47.26 |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises | 82.93 | 101.21 | 22.04 |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences | 95.14 | 101.19 | 6.36 |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | 60.78 | 47.22 | -22.31 |
| Mean | -7.65 | |||
| Median | -5.01 |
Forbes: 15 Great Stocks for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| RCI | Rogers Communications | 38.71 | 34.46 | -10.98 |
| FMER | Firstmerit | 18.98 | 18.65 | -1.74 |
| K | Kellogg Company | 65.63 | 72.27 | 10.12 |
| SPTN | SpartanNash | 26.15 | 21.64 | -17.25 |
| * MRGE | Merge Healthcare | 3.63 | 7.12 | 96.14 |
| AVD | American Vanguard Corp | 11.71 | 14.01 | 19.64 |
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | 16.80 | 14.85 | -11.61 |
| AUY | Yamana Gold | 3.94 | 1.86 | -52.79 |
| COH | Coach | 37.70 | 32.73 | -13.18 |
| DPLO | Diplomat Pharmacy | 27.40 | 34.22 | 24.89 |
| ZLTQ | Zeltiq Aesthetics | 28.59 | 28.53 | -0.21 |
| DENN | Denny's | 10.39 | 9.83 | -5.39 |
| CCUR | Concurrent Computer | 7.10 | 4.95 | -30.28 |
| FL | Foot Locker | 56.43 | 65.09 | 15.35 |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | 136.63 | 214.02 | 56.64 |
| Mean | 5.29 | |||
| Median | -1.74 |
Fool: 7 Top Stocks to Buy for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| QCOM | Qualcom | 74.51 | 49.99 | -32.91 |
| FB | 78.58 | 104.66 | 33.19 | |
| SEAS | SeaWorld Entertainment | 18.01 | 19.69 | 9.33 |
| WWAV | WhiteWave Foods | 35.13 | 38.91 | 10.76 |
| GOOGL | 532.60 | 778.01 | 46.08 | |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | 22.45 | 22.75 | 1.34 |
| AAPL | Apple | 111.39 | 105.26 | -5.50 |
| Mean | 8.89 | |||
| Median | 9.33 |
Money: 12 Great Stocks for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| BAC | Bank of America | 17.99 | 16.83 | -6.45 |
| ORCL | Oracle | 45.02 | 36.53 | -18.86 |
| APA | Apache Corporation | 62.18 | 44.47 | -28.48 |
| VAC | Marriott | 74.92 | 56.95 | -23.99 |
| EAT | Brinker International | 59.17 | 47.95 | -18.96 |
| TTC | Toro | 63.92 | 73.07 | 14.31 |
| HSP | Hospira | 62.44 | 89.95 | 44.06 |
| AKAM | Akami | 63.48 | 52.63 | -17.09 |
| INGN | Inogen | 31.35 | 40.09 | 27.88 |
| WMAR | West Marine | 13.00 | 8.49 | -34.69 |
| INVE | Identiv | 13.98 | 1.99 | -85.77 |
| * RTI | RTI International Metals | 24.85 | 28.29 | 13.86 |
| Mean | -11.18 | |||
| Median | -17.97 |
TheStreet, BofA Merrill Lynch: 10 Top S&P 500 Stocks to Buy for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| GM | General Motors | 35.27 | 34.01 | -3.57 |
| WMT | Walmart | 86.27 | 61.30 | -28.94 |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | 92.25 | 77.95 | -15.50 |
| UNM | Unum Group | 35.13 | 33.29 | -5.24 |
| PFE | Pfizer | 31.27 | 32.28 | 3.23 |
| GE | General Electric | 25.34 | 31.15 | 22.93 |
| INTC | Intel | 36.67 | 34.45 | -6.05 |
| AA | Alcoa | 15.87 | 9.87 | -37.81 |
| VZ | Verizon | 47.00 | 46.22 | -1.66 |
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 106.63 | 103.89 | -2.57 |
| Mean | -7.51 | |||
| Median | -4.40 |
InvestorPlace: 10 Best Stocks for 2015
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| GOOGL | 532.60 | 778.01 | 46.08 | |
| AMBA | Ambarella | 52.00 | 55.74 | 7.19 |
| ABM | ABM Industries | 28.69 | 28.47 | -0.77 |
| AAPL | Apple | 111.39 | 105.26 | -5.50 |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 8.29 | 6.98 | -15.80 |
| RAVE | Rave Restaurant Group | 7.12 | 6.39 | -10.25 |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | 77.93 | 59.07 | -24.20 |
| IEZ | US Oil Equipment (ETF) | 49.88 | 35.78 | -28.27 |
| NE | Noble Corporation | 16.44 | 10.55 | -35.83 |
| YHOO | Yahoo | 50.66 | 33.26 | -34.35 |
| Mean | -10.16 | |||
| Median | -13.02 |
MarketWatch: 10 great stocks for 2015 from 3 market wizards
| 1/2/15 | 12/31/15 | % Price Ret | ||
| YHOO | Yahoo | 50.66 | 33.26 | -34.35 |
| AAPL | Apple | 111.39 | 105.26 | -5.50 |
| ICON | Iconix Brand Group | 34.00 | 6.83 | -79.91 |
| LL | Lumber Liquidators | 66.60 | 17.36 | -73.93 |
| CVX | Chevron | 111.63 | 89.96 | -19.41 |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | 68.50 | 46.69 | -31.84 |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | 92.25 | 77.95 | -15.50 |
| HP | Helmerich & Payne | 67.02 | 53.55 | -20.10 |
| IBM | IBM | 161.31 | 137.62 | -14.69 |
| T | AT&T | 33.59 | 34.41 | 2.44 |
| Mean | -29.27 | |||
| Median | -19.75 |
This is not meant to be an indictment of the publications listed; however, you should take stock advice with a grain of salt. Picking stocks and beating the market is difficult; hindsight is 20/20.
All the best in 2016!
Data collected from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance and cleaned with the quantmod R package.
* indicates a company that did not trade throughout all of 2015, eg: was bought out
*** This and all other content and opinions on bytemuse.com are not investment advice of any kind; speak with a qualified professional if you are looking for advice. Bytemuse.com has no association with the publications linked to in this article.
